Oscar 2009: le mie previsioni

Domenica notte a Los Angeles verranno assegnati gli 81mi Oscar del cinema: di conseguenza, non potevano mancare le mie documentatissime (ma spesso errate) previsioni in tutte le categorie, che quest'anno sembrano decisamente blindate.

Non riesco però a liberarmi dal pensiero che ancora una volta ci possa essere qualche grossa sorpresa... Ce la farà infatti Sean Penn a prevalere su Rourke nonostante quest'ultimo abbia fatto messe di premi? Vincerà, come da ipotetica scontata previsione, la Cruz come supporter? O avverrà anche in questo caso il colpaccio da parte di una delle due caratteriste de "Il dubbio"?

Per le risposte, appuntamento alla notte tra domenica e lunedì a partire dalle 2,30 circa.
Quindi, dubbi a parte, dopo aver consultato i maggiori siti americani della settima arte, i quotidiani d'oltreoceano, le pagine amatoriali e i blog, ecco di seguito il mio forecast.

In rosso chi probabilmente vincerà.

In verde, se sussiste, un'alternativa molto probabile.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Ceán Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall
Frost/Nixon (2008): Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Eric Fellner
Milk (2008): Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks, Michael London
The Reader (2008): Donna Gigliotti, Anthony Minghella, Redmond Morris, Sydney Pollack
Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Christian Colson

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (2007/I)
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon (2008)
Sean Penn for Milk (2008)
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (2008)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married (2008)
Angelina Jolie for Changeling (2008)
Melissa Leo for Frozen River (2008)
Meryl Streep for Doubt (2008/I)
Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin for Milk (2008)
Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder (2008)
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt (2008/I)
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight (2008)
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road (2008)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for Doubt (2008/I)
Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)
Viola Davis for Doubt (2008/I)
Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler (2008)

Best Achievement in Directing
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
Stephen Daldry for The Reader (2008)
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon (2008)
Gus Van Sant for Milk (2008)

Best Writing, Original Screenplay
Frozen River (2008): Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky (2008): Mike Leigh
In Bruges (2008): Martin McDonagh
Milk (2008): Dustin Lance Black
WALL·E (2008): Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Doubt (2008/I): John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon (2008): Peter Morgan
The Reader (2008): David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Simon Beaufoy

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Changeling (2008): Tom Stern
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight (2008): Wally Pfister
The Reader (2008): Roger Deakins, Chris Menges
Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Anthony Dod Mantle

Best Achievement in Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight (2008): Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon (2008): Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
Milk (2008): Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Chris Dickens

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Changeling (2008): James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
The Dark Knight (2008): Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
The Duchess (2008): Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
Revolutionary Road (2008): Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Australia (2008): Catherine Martin
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Jacqueline West
The Duchess (2008): Michael O'Connor
Milk (2008): Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road (2008): Albert Wolsky

Best Achievement in Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Greg Cannom
The Dark Knight (2008)
Hellboy II: The Golden Army (2008)

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Alexandre Desplat
Defiance (2008): James Newton Howard
Milk (2008): Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire (2008): A.R. Rahman
WALL·E (2008): Thomas Newman

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Slumdog Millionaire (2008): A.R. Rahman, Gulzar("Jai Ho")
Slumdog Millionaire (2008): A.R. Rahman, M.I.A("O Saya")
WALL·E (2008): Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman("Down to Earth")

Best Achievement in Sound
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)
The Dark Knight (2008): Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo
Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
WALL·E (2008)
Wanted (2008)

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
The Dark Knight (2008)
Iron Man (2008)
Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
WALL·E (2008)
Wanted (2008)

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Eric Barba, Edson Williams
The Dark Knight (2008): Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Timothy Webber, Paul J. Franklin
Iron Man (2008)

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Bolt (2008)
Kung Fu Panda (2008)
WALL·E (2008)

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex (2008)(Germany)
Entre les murs (2008)(France)
Revanche (2008)(Austria)
Okuribito (2008)(Japan)
Vals Im Bashir (2008)(Israel)

Best Documentary, Features
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon (2008)
Encounters at the End of the World (2007)
The Garden (2008/I)
Man on Wire (2008)
Trouble the Water (2008)

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306

Best Short Film, Animated
Ubornaya istoriya - lyubovnaya istoriya (2007): Konstantin Bronzit
La Maison en Petits Cubes: Kunio Kato
Oktapodi (2007): Julien Bocabeille, François-Xavier Chanioux, Olivier Delabarre, Thierry Marchand, Quentin Marmier, Emud Mokhberi
Presto (2008): Doug Sweetland
This Way Up (2008): Alan Smith, Adam Foulkes

Best Short Film, Live Action
Auf der Strecke (2007)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy (2007)
The Pig
Spielzeugland (2007)